BP: Boosting Production, Banking Profits

Mike van Dulken and Artjom Hatsaturjants at Accendo Markets, commented this morning:

BP: Boosting Production, Banking Profits

FTSE 100 Index called to open +10pts at 7035, still within a 3-week falling channel range 6840-7080. After rallying back from lows of 6925, Bulls need a break above falling highs resistance at 7080. Bears require another breach of 7000. Watch levels: Bullish 7085, Bearish 6995

Calls for a positive open follow a roller-coaster ride on Wall St (Dow Jones 900pt/3.7% range) that saw the tech-heavy Nasdaq fall sharply, Amazon the main culprit as a bellwether of sector sentiment and the UK Chancellor’s announcement of a new digital sales tax focused on Big Tech.

Market swings derived from mixed messages from the White House on the US-China trade war, with initial Bloomberg reports of more tariffs overridden by Trump signalling a possibility of a “great deal”. Trump’s comments and Chinese regulators supporting local companies and share buybacks helped equities recover lost ground in Asia.

In corporate news this morning, BP Q3 adj. net profit $3.8bn beats $2.76b est. (range $2.3b-$3.1bn); Production 3.6m boe/d vs 3.38m est. (Q4 to be higher after boosted by BHP assets); Proceeds from $5-$6bn divestments to cut debt. Dividend +2.5% YoY to 10.25c.

Reckitt Benckiser Q3 like-for-like sales +2% QoQ (+2% YTD), infant formula/child nutrition -6% (temporary disruption at European plant, potential knock on to Q4 and 2019), rest of health +4%, Hygiene Home +4%. On track to hit FY net revenue target (+2-3% like-for-like growth).

After the UK budget, UK Housebuilders may remain sensitive to a 2yr extension to the Help to Buy scheme albeit, as expected, with some restrictions (first time buyers only, regional price caps). IAG may be sensitive to disappointing results (9-month profits -8%) from Germany’s Lufthansa. FTSE Banks may like news of France’s BNP Paribas beating Q3 profits expectations, boosted by international.

Hunting Q3 revenues steady in North America, onshore demand firm, but offshore and international market slow due to geopolitical tensions, FY trading in-line. Ocado signs master services plan with US chain Kroger for 20 Customer Fulfilment Centres (CFCs) over first 3 years, the first 3 by end-18; Peak financing of £90m for Ocado; 2018 earnings neutral.

AstraZeneca divests European rights to Nexium (off patent) and global rights (ex-US & Japan) to Vimovo (European patent protection until 2025) to Grünenthal for $815m upfront. WH Smith acquired InMotion, the largest US digital accessories travel retailer, for $198m, which will double the size of WH Smith’s international travel business (the only bit growing/making money).

Polymetal agrees to sell Kapan mine (Armenia; 3% of Polymetal gold reserves) to Chaarat Gold for $55m, to be completed Q1 2019. St. Modwen agrees £75m loan facility (7-10yrs) with Homes England Home Building Fund.

In focus today will be German Unemployment (8:55am) and Inflation (1pm). While unemployment is projected unchanged at 5.1%, consensus for inflation projects an acceleration to 2.4% YoY (from 2.3% in Sept) to hit a new 7-year high, due to higher food and energy prices.

From the Eurozone, we get Q3 GDP (10am) figures, currently expected 1.8% YoY (down from 2.1% in Q2), while Business Confidence and other sentiment indicators are forecast weakening.

In the US, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (1pm) are still growing, but at a marginally slower 5.8% YoY pace. API Crude Oil Inventories (8:30pm) should show more inventory growth, albeit less than the unexpectedly large builds of the last 2 weeks which pushed oil prices and energy shares lower.

In terms of speakers, ECB Chief Economist Praet (1:30pm) chairs an ECB monetary policy “bridging science and practice” conference, while colleague Lautenschläger (2:10pm) gives the keynote address at a meeting on global and regional supervisory priorities in the Bahamas.

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Categories: News, Trading
Tags: FTSE 100

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Accendo Markets

Accendo Markets is an online trading services provider, offering CFDs, spread betting and forex to retail (private) clients. Accendo Markets was established in 2007 and has since gone on to win various awards including ‘2018 Winner of Best CFD provider’ at City of London Wealth Management awards and 2017 & 2018 Best CFD Research Service in ADVFN’s International Financial Awards Accendo Markets Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). For more information, visit www.accendomarkets.com