A ‘meaningful’ return of confidence?

Calls for a positive start come after a turnaround in sentiment in Asia overnight (in spite of a negative US close) thanks to investors calming their fears about the current US-China trade tariff dispute. Demand for safe-havens (Yen, Gold, USD Index) continues to wane.

A ‘meaningful’ return of confidence?

FTSE 100 Index called to open +55pts at 7655, holding yesterday’s rebound and trying to break beyond late Monday’s highs. Bulls need a break above 7670 overnight highs, if not those of Sunday night (7675). As for the Bears, they require a breach of rising support and the overnight break north at 7640. Watch levels: Bullish 7675, Bearish 7640.

Calls for a positive start come after a turnaround in sentiment in Asia overnight (in spite of a negative US close) thanks to investors calming their fears about the current US-China trade tariff dispute. Demand for safe-havens (Yen, Gold, USD Index) continues to wane.

Note higher commodity prices (Oil helped by US API inventories; metals supported by USD off highs and easing in trade war fears) helping Energy and Mining names in Australia overnight, which may help the FTSE100 this morning (given their combined 25% weight on the index) although beware any return of GBP strength from its recent lows.

Oil’s strength derives from by yesterday’s bigger than expected 3m drawdown in API oil inventories. Beware, however, soundbites from oil ministers ahead of the Friday’s OPEC meeting with Russia already quite vocal about reducing production cuts now that prices have recovered.

In corporate news this morning, Berkeley Group FY pre-tax profit +15.1% (beat consensus), but rev -0.7% (in-line), upgrades 5-year pre-tax profit guidance to £3.38bn  from £3.3bn. BAE Systems wins $198m US Marine contract which could be worth up to $1.2bn.

Legal & General says next stage of Investment Management (LGIM) strategy comprises 3 components; 1) broadening investment capabilities, 2) addressing savings gap and 3) internationalising core strengths; expects LGIM operating profits up 8-10% over the medium term, assuming normal market conditions.

Sports Direct International holds 8.6% stake in US brand management company Iconix; now fully disposed of US retailer Finish Line. LondonMetric Property has acquired Urban Logistics portfolio for £55m. Sirius Minerals signs 7yr supply agreement for POLY4 with Nigeria’s ITL.

Petropavlovsk and investor IRC granted payment waiver on $340m loan from ICBC. HSS Hire secures new £220m loan (700-800bp over LIBOR) and a new £25m credit (250-300bp over LIBOR) line to refinance existing debt.

In focus, today – with a little more data on offer – will be US CBI Orders and Prices (11 am), for its read on demand and inflationary pressures. Across the pond, US Existing Homes Sales (3 pm) can serve as a useful gauge for US consumer confidence and economic stability, however, remember we had very mixed Starts and Permits data yesterday, up and down 5%, respectively in May, and the NAHB index was weak on Monday.

Oil remains sensitive to expectations about Friday’s biannual OPEC meeting (production cuts to be rolled back?), however, EIA Inventory data (3.30pm) could move prices this afternoon. Especially if it deviates markedly from last night’s US API (bigger than expected Crude drawdown, bigger build in Gasoline).

The ECB Central Bank Forum keeps up momentum with President Draghi speaking again (2.30pm), this time alongside Fed Chair Powell, BoJ Governor Kuroda and Aussie Governor Lowe.

UK Prime Minister May faces another showdown with government rebels regarding a ‘meaningful vote’ on any Brexit deal. The House of Lords has re-amended the EU Withdrawal Bill, sending it back to the House of Commons for the second time in a fortnight. PMQs (12 pm) sure to be as lively as ever.

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Categories: Analysis, News
Tags: FTSE 100, oil

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