Morning Editorial: OPEC, BoE, Tariffs, Brexit, PMIs

Calls for a tepid open are in spite of a negative start to the week in Asia, as investors continue to react to Friday’s ramping of unwelcome US-China trade tensions, the former putting in place $50bn of tariffs and the latter responding with a retaliatory threat list just hours later.

Morning Editorial: OPEC, BoE, Tariffs, Brexit, PMIs

FTSE 100 Index called to open +5pts at 7640, still under pressure since last Friday’s breakdown, holding around the lowest since late May. Bulls need a break above late Friday highs of 7678; Bears require a breach of overnight and Friday’s lows of 7630. Watch levels: Bullish 7680, Bearish 7630.

Calls for a tepid open are in spite of a negative start to the week in Asia, as investors continue to react to Friday’s ramping of unwelcome US-China trade tensions, the former putting in place $50bn of tariffs and the latter responding with a retaliatory threat list just hours later.

Oil prices are down as energy markets begin to price in the possibility that Friday‘s OPEC meeting sees the cartel (read Saudi Arabia) and Russia begins to roll on the production cuts that have helped oil prices recover. USD higher to hamper commodities, hence a muted start for the FTSE, even if GBP remains is under pressure.

In corporate news this morning Virgin Money agrees to £1.7bn all share offer from CYBG for 38% share of the new group; 1.2125 new CYBG shares for each Virgin share (371p); 19% premium to undisturbed 4 May closing price.

Rio Tinto reiterates 330-340m tonne 2018 iron ore shipping guidance; Sees $2.2bn spending on replacement iron ore mines over next 3yrs. Indivior granted temporary restraining order (TRO) by US District Court for District of New Jersey that compels Dr. Reddy’s to immediately cease launch activities related to generic SUBOXONE Film.

The UK’s CMA says Rentokil acquisition of Cannon Hygiene may lead to higher prices and lower quality, the solution required by June 25, otherwise more in-depth probe. DS Smith FY revenues +21%, adj. pre-tax profit +21%, dividend -7.5%, new year started well, momentum continuing, ongoing recovery in paper prices progressing as expected. Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass Lewis support existing Petropavlovsk board.

In terms of data, with most of today’s already out of the way, we have only US NAHB Housing Index (3pm) to look forward to this afternoon, with expectations for it to be unchanged at 70.

In focus this week, therefore, will be the Bank of England monetary policy decision (Thurs, 12pm) where no change is expected but we may get an update on whether August is in play. We also have the Mansion House Speech (Thurs eve) where BoE Governor Carney and UK Chancellor Hammond offer their views on the UK Economy, Financial Regs and, of course, Brexit.

On Wednesday, the ECB Central Bank Forum in Portugal sees many big names from the central banking world debating “Price and wage-setting in advanced economies”; ECB President Draghi, Fed Chair Powell, as well as their Australian and Irish counterparts, Fed member Bullard and former US secretary of the treasury Lawrence Summers.

We also have more consideration of Lords Amendments on the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill (12pm). The PM May will be under pressure here again, as well as to justify her NHS Brexit dividend pledge and the Chancellor to crunch the numbers on how to finance it.

Friday will see the release of June flash Manufacturing & Services PMI figures from France, Germany and the Eurozone(7:45-9am), as well as the US (2:45pm), with analysts expecting European PMI figures slightly weaker or unchanged from May data, adding that Eurozone economic slowdown since December 2017. US PMIs, however, are expected to diverge, with the Manufacturing index falling in June flash figures, while Services are forecast to rise.

On Friday, OPEC has its bi-annual meeting in Vienna where it (along with allies; read Russia) is expected to make a decision on ending voluntary production cuts. Members are divided, with Saudi Arabia and Russia advocating an end of cuts (expecting to be able to make up revenue shortfalls by upping production), while Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela are calling for cuts to continue due to their own domestic woes (sanctions, economic). With the Saudi/Russian side expected to prevail, oil prices could remain under pressure, with a reciprocal impact on FTSE Energy shares.

Enter your e-mail address to receive updates straight to your inbox

My Newsletter

You can easily unsubscribe at any time by clicking on the unsubscribe links at the bottom of each of our emails
Tags: oil, Rio Tinto

About Author