Morning Editorial: Bullishness prevails

FTSE 100 Index called to open +10pts at 7725, holding the rebound from Wednesday lows, albeit with falling highs resistance. Bulls need a break above 7750 overnight highs, to break beyond the falling highs resistance; Bears require a breach of 7718 overnight lows for another visit of yesterday’s trough.

Morning Editorial: Bullishness prevails

FTSE 100 Index called to open +10pts at 7725, holding the rebound from Wednesday lows, albeit with falling highs resistance. Bulls need a break above 7750 overnight highs, to break beyond the falling highs resistance; Bears require a breach of 7718 overnight lows for another visit of yesterday’s trough. Watch levels: Bullish 7750, Bearish 7718.

Calls for a positive open are supported by broad gains in Asia and Wall St, where Tech sector strength sent the Nasdaq to another record high. Also helping was the continued global equity rebound as investors shift further from bond markets (where prices fell as hawkish ECB comments “pointed” to the end of QE bond buying by year-end).

Dollar index testing late May lows may limit the upside for the globally-oriented FTSE names by way of reciprocal GBP strength. Relative USD weakness versus major peers, however, still helpful for Miners and USD-priced Metals. Note Oil prices up from Wednesday’s lows, shrugging off EIA showed a 2m barrel Crude build and concerns mount over Venezuela’s ability to keep pumping oil and OPEC/Russia to make up the difference. Gold steady at $1297 as global tensions (Italy, NK, Iran) settle and investors seek out riskier investments.

In corporate news this morning, SSE settles for £1m with regulator OFGEM after issuing inaccurate annual statements to pre-payment customers.Takeda confirms that both Shire and Takeda shareholders will get a vote on the proposed deal. Kier Group forms JV (69% owner; 50% voting rights) to build 5,400 homes over next 10 years, increasing its mixed tenure housebuilding by 500 units annually by 2020. Intertek makes a small acquisition (NTA Monitor). Plus500 says business strong, ups guidance.

Auto Trader full-year pre-tax profits +10% on revenues +7% (Trade +8%), implying margin expansion; operating cash flow +6.2%, average revenue per retailer forecourt +9.6%, final div +14%; guidance reiterated. Mitie Group FY adj. operating profit -6%, adj. revenue +3% (both top of estimate range), expects modest revenue growth for the rest of the year, seeking to improve profitability. Unite gets approval for 928-bed student development in Leeds.

In focus today will be Eurozone Q1 GDP (10am), the 3rd estimate expected to confirm regional growth slowing to 2.5% (from a 2.8% peak in Q4), depriving ECB policy hawks (recently on the warpath) of ammo in their fight for tighter monetary policy; QE taper and interest rate hikes. UK Halifax House Prices (8:30am) will be looked to for the latest on the state of what is a slowing UK property market, with reading across to the Housebuilders. Monthly expectations are for a May rebound to 1% from April’s surprise 3.1% plunge, the biggest fall in nearly 8 years. On an annual basis, however, growth likely slowed to 1.9% from 2.2%.

Speakers today include Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Ramsden (4pm, centrist), speaking at Barclays’ Inflation Conference, as well as Bank of Canada Governor Poloz (4:15pm) at a press conference presenting June’s Financial System Review. US companies publishing results/trading updates, including multinational wholesaler Costco (May sales) and semiconductor manufacturer Broadcom (Q2 earnings).

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Categories: Analysis, News
Tags: FTSE 100

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