Morning Editorial: RBS: Reduced Bailout Stake

Calls for a negative open are supported by mixed trading in Asia and at odds with the positive close on Wall St driven by Tech. Energy and Mining in the red after oil prices retreated further from May highs, albeit potentially stabilising, hedge funds tapering bets on the oil rally, but the need for OPEC/Russia to reverse cuts also potentially cooling.

Morning Editorial: RBS: Reduced Bailout Stake

FTSE 100 Index called to open -30pts at 7710, back from yesterday’s rebound peak, now testing the floor of the rising recovery channel from late May. Bulls need a break above 7740 overnight highs; Bears require a breach of Friday’s 7690 lows. Watch levels: Bullish 7740, Bearish 7690

Calls for a negative open are supported by mixed trading in Asia and at odds with the positive close on Wall St driven by Tech. Energy and Mining in the red after oil prices retreated further from May highs, albeit potentially stabilising, hedge funds tapering bets on the oil rally, but the need for OPEC/Russia to reverse cuts also potentially cooling.

USD and GBP mostly flat, giving neither boost nor hindrance to globalised FTSE constituents. Last night Bank of England policymaker Silvana Tenreyro dampened expectations of multiple UK rate hikes this year, adding to the Pound’s weakness and providing some cushion for the FTSE.

This with the specter of Brexit again in the spotlight with the UK Government delaying publication of its Brexit white paper until after the June EU summit, impacting UK businesses investment planning, and Parliament’s Brexit Bill debate and vote scheduled for June 12.

In corporate news this morning, the UK Government has sold a 7.7% stake in Royal Bank of Scotland (part of its 70.1% bailout; now 62.4%) at 271p per share, raising £2.5bn for taxpayers, albeit at a loss on the average 502p per share £45bn 2008 bailout.

Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust raises a further £170m in long-term fixed-rate senior, unsecured, private placement 20-30 year notes, at a cost of just under 3% per annum. Standard Chartered announces tender offer for repurchase £1.85bn outstanding debt due 2020, 2034 and 2038, without impacting 2018 funding plans.

St Modwen Properties says made good start to the year, guidance unchanged.  Renewables Infrastructure Group acquires two onshore wind farms in Northern France, currently under construction and expected operational in Q4. Johnston Press 2018 expectations in line with consensus after revenues -9% year to date, assessing options for restructuring/refinancing bonds.

Ryanair May traffic +6% YoY to 12.5m flyers, load factor +1% to +96%, asks EU to prevent further air-traffic controller strikes after it had to cancel 1,100 flights in May. AO World full year revenues +13.6%, but pre-tax loss more than doubled, due to higher marketing and price competition. Guidance unchanged, but remains cautious on outlook given competitive electricals market.

FastJet negotiates $5m 6-month commercial terms loans with third parties to free up $2m restricted cash; entering a quieter period of the year, cash headroom minimal, still looking at financing options.

The macroeconomic highlight of the day will be publication of various final PMI Services/Composite from France (8:50am), Germany (8:55am), Eurozone (9am), UK (9:30am) and, finally, the US (2:45pm), with European indices projected to confirm declines, while the UK and US are expected to have risen in May.

Other macroeconomic data include Euro Area Retail Sales (10am), forecasted higher YoY after a surprise fall last month, as well as US ISM Non-Manufacturing (3pm), set to rise after a disappointing April, to cap off the data for Tuesday, except for API oil inventories tonight (9.30pom)

Several key Central Bank speakers will be featured today, chief among them ECB President Mario Draghi (2pm), participating in a “Two Presidents’ Talk” panel with predecessor Jean-Claude Trichet in Frankfurt. His speech will be bookended by two ECB colleagues, Nowotny (10:30am, hawkish), chairing a panel at the Slovak central bank conference, and Wiedmann (6:30pm, hawkish), speaking in Brussels.

Closer to UK shores, we will be treated to a speech by the Bank of England’s deputy governor for financial stability Cunliffe (11 am, centrist)speaking at Futures Industry Association International Derivatives Expo in London.

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Categories: Analysis, News
Tags: BoE, FTSE 100, Ryanair

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