Morning Editorial: The Italian Job rattles Europe

Calls for a negative open are derived from losses on Asia sparked by a fall in oil prices to 6-week lows (set to put the hurt to FTSE Energy names), as well as amid continuing political crisis in Italy where President Mattarella appointed an EU-friendly caretaker Prime Minister-designate.

Morning Editorial: The Italian Job rattles Europe

FTSE 100 Index called to open -55pts at 7675, extending week-long downtrend as the index bounced away from all-time highs the previous week (7903) to test mid-May support levels. Bulls need a break above 7720 to overcome falling highs resistance and reverse the losses. Bears require a break below 7670 to advance the downtrend further and completely reverse May gains. Watch levels: Bullish 7720, Bearish 7680

Calls for a negative open are derived from losses on Asia sparked by a fall in oil prices to 6-week lows (set to put the hurt to FTSE Energy names), as well as amid continuing political crisis in Italy where President Mattarella appointed an EU-friendly caretaker Prime Minister-designate.

New technocratic cabinet is unlikely to be able to secure sufficient votes in Italian parliament, which would spark a new election that has the potential for Eurosceptic populist parties gain more support. Political turmoil in Europe was exacerbated by an upcoming vote of no-confidence against Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy, set for coming Friday.

Political negotiations between US and North Korea were reignited with Trump/Kim summit back on the agenda and US signalling that it is prepared to hold off on new NK sanctions, but it was not sufficient to reassure investors spooked by continuing global tensions. Even a weaker GBP (typically a boon for FTSE global stocks) and EUR battered by Italian/Spanish geopolitical risks were not sufficient to prop up equities. Gold was flat despite all the instability, as investors were flocking into the stronger USD.

In corporate news this morning Dixons Carphone Q4 results see FY revenue +3 YoY, +4% like-for-like, maintains leading market share. Smiths Group confirmed that it is in a very early stage of discussions for a potential merger of its medical division with ICU Medical.

Standard Life Aberdeen announced £750M share buyback (to return a total of £1.75B to shareholders). Rolls-Royce launched a new series of business jet engines, which will be the sole engine for Bombardier’s latest business jets. UK Government may begin selling part of its remaining stake in Royal Bank of Scotland as soon as this week.

Vedanta Resources said on Tuesday that it has been ordered to permanently close its Copper Smelter Plant in Tuticorin, India. ITV is said to be considering entering into a £1B joint venture The BBC to acquire half of UKTV.

In focus today will be US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (2pm), where March data is expected to rise slightly on a month-on-month basis due to seasonal adjustments. This will be followed by US Consumer Confidence data (3pm), with figures expected to pull back in line with other sentiment indicators, and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 3:30pm.

To cap the day off, we will see a release of private API Oil Inventories figures (9:30pm), which is expected to show a build to put further downward pressure on oil prices.

A few ECB Executive Board speakers featured today including Mersch (10:30am, hawkish) giving a keynote speech at Frankfurt Finance Summit,Lautenschläger (4:30pm, hawkish) discussing monetary policy at the Center for Financial Studies in Frankfurt, as well as Coeure (5:00pm, hawkish) speaking at a roundtable discussion in Paris.

US quarterly earnings report season continues, with Salesforce.com reporting Q1 results, while HP Inc. is reporting Q2 results.

Enter your e-mail address to receive updates straight to your inbox

My Newsletter

You can easily unsubscribe at any time by clicking on the unsubscribe links at the bottom of each of our emails
Categories: Analysis, News
Tags: FTSE 100

About Author