Has the $ got the legs..?

Has the $ got the legs..?

Good Morning all.

European holidays mean it’s likely to be pretty quiet today as we reflect on what was a great weekend. The weather, the wedding and the FA Cup turning blue – Fantastic.
All we have to do now is ready ourselves for the next major event.
No, not Non Farm Payroll – The Champions League Final.

Seriously though.
Has the $ got the legs..?
It certainly “appears” to want to keep going as $Yen climbs over 111.00, $Swiss as good as parity after an incredible run and both Euro$ and Cable slip further. Its not all about the dollar of course as there are still the Brexit woes and European politics weighing heavy but it is having  a period of “sunshine” in its own right.

Still having to prove to the market that this recent push northwards is not a flash in the pan and  the trend that started in January 2017 is actually at an end is going to be tough.  As in previous blogs the longer term players will have this down as a Phase 2 pull-back as they ready themselves to go short on the turn back  into the aforementioned trend.  Not for me though, I’m happy with it and I reckon it’s on course to go further north. It is going to be tricky for sure as a retracement is well overdue but the mighty greenback is slugging it out.

So what’s my take..?
Euro $ – lower
Cable – lower
$Yen – higher
Oil – higher
Gold – not in it
The U.S $ – higher

These are my trade directions.
I expect there to be days where I don’t get my way and so on those days I won’t trade.
Never the less this is how I see it at the moment.   It (the $) is at a critical point as I have stressed so many times as of late and needs to prove to the market it has the minerals to go higher.  Donald Trump continues to actually do the things he said he was going to do and as support for the flamboyant President grows same goes for the $.  Failing something coming completely out of the blue I believe this could go a lot higher.

Back tomorrow.


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Categories: Guest Writers, News, Viewpoint

About Author

Clive Arneil

Clive Arneil worked for major brokers for over 20 years trading most instruments in the Foreign Exchange markets as well as Derivatives. Brokered deals on behalf of some of the worlds largest banks including Barclays, Citibank, UBS, Nat West and the Bank of England. Worked mainly in the UK but also in Switzerland, Germany and the U.S. Retired from the Money Market at the age of 40 and worked as a financial data feed specialist supplying market data to Banks, Brokers and Spread-Betting companies. Still trading and teaching people the skills required to master today’s volatile markets.