Xi “calls in” favour from Trump

Xi “calls in” favour from Trump

Xi “calls in”favor from Trump

Mike van Dulken and Artjom Hatsaturjants at Accendo Markets, commented to clients this morning:

FTSE 100 Index called to open flat at 7720, having plateaued since Friday but still within a 7-week uptrend that could yet get it back to Jan 7800 highs, possibly even higher. Bulls need a break above 7730 overnight highs. Bears likely require a breach of Friday’s 7690 lows before being able to revisit the 7630 channel floor. Watch levels: Bullish 7730, Bearish 7690

Calls for a flat open are in spite of broadly positive start to the week in Asia, helped by US President Trump signalling compromise inSino-American trade disputes, pushing for a rescue of telecom giant ZTE on President Xi’s request. This has boosted prospects of a trade deal (despite last week’s setbacks in Beijing) which could support global FTSE equities (Miners, Energy).

Brent Crude Oil is off its latest 3.5-year highs ($76.72, -1%) amid fears that OPEC will offset lost exports from Iranian  sanctions, while the USD index extends its retreat as markets price in the potential of the Fed hiking “only” three times this year. Gold flat around $1320, despite weaker USD, as investors deal with global risk without much appetite for safe havens.

In corporate news this morning, Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust reports FY18 NAV +25%, EPS +12%, final div +4.3% to 1.68p (paid from earnings, revenues reserves and capital reserves), FY div +2.3% to 3.07p, New tiered Annual Management Charge to lower costs.

Centrica: Competition intensity remains high in core markets, net customer switching slowed, trading in-line, on track to hit 2018 growth targets, although revenue growth expected to be H2 weighted. Assumes temporary UK tariff cap in place by end-18. Indivior settles with Par Pharmaceutical regarding patent infringement of Suboxone Sublingual film, allowing Par to begin selling a generic version from 2023, or earlier under certain circumstances.

Diploma H1 revenues +8% (+7% organic), adjusted pre-tax profit +9%, free cash flow -14%, interim div +10%. “Brexit will not materially impact the Group’s outlook or viability.” Dignity Q1 revenues +2%, underlying operating profit +0.2%,services +8%, positive start to year but too early to conclude Q1 trading of price and volume mix going forwards, 2018 to be volatile, but sees full year in-line with expectations, next update 1 Aug.

Victrex H1 sales volume +21%, revenues +27%, pre-tax profit +26%, dividend +10%; on track for 2018 thanks to momentum, but FX much less of a tailwind for rest of year, a headwind for 2019. City Pub Group says trading rebounding from rough weather, first 18-week sales +23% YoY, should benefit from World Cup and meet full year expectations. Ophir Energy enters 40% farm-out with Kosmos Energy concerning EG-24 exploration license in Equatorial Guinea.

In focus today will be the plethora of central bank speakers (11am-6.45pm) and OPEC’s monthly oil report (12:20pm) due to major market-moving data points being distinctly lacking. Speakers include, the ECB’s Mersch (11am; Turkey), Lautenshclager (Copenhagen, 11.15am and 4pm), Praet (Chief Economist; London, 12.45pm and 5:15pm) and Cœuré (ICMB, Geneva, 6.45pm), with the Fed’s Bullard (CoinDesk Consensus 2018, NYC, 2.40pm) sandwiched in the middle.We nonetheless have a busy data macro slate this week with, on Tuesday, Eurozone GDP, China Retail Sales and Industrial Production, US Retail Sales; Japanese GDP, Eurozone CPI and US Housing on Wednesday, as well as potential for an imminent announcement about formation of an Italian coalition government. There are also lots more corporate results: Burberry, Vodafone, AstraZeneca, Royal Mail, National Grid, British Land and Land Securities in the UK, Allianz, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, AP Moller Maersk and Richemont in Europe, and WalMart, Home Depot, Cisco Systems and Deere stateside.

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Categories: Analysis, News
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