FTSE fails with fake-out

FTSE fails with fake-out

Mike van Dulken, Head of Research at Accendo Markets, commented to clients this morning:

FTSE 100 Index called to open -30pts at 7235, having failed to overcome intersecting falling highs resistance at 7275 overnight. This keeps the index in a Feb/Mar/Apr falling channel. Bulls still require a meaningful breakout beyond said trendline (rather than yesterday’s fake-out; 7300?). Bears retain hope of a retrace towards 6800, but need a breach of rising support at 7210 first. Watch levels: Bullish 7270, Bearish 7210

Calls for a negative open derive from a mixed showing from Asia overnight, in spite of a Wall St rally providing a positive lead on reduced trade war fears. Another change in the White House probably doesn’t help with the latest departure being that of the homeland security adviser.

Energy names buoyed by strong oil prices, albeit off highs, in turn helping Miners, while Tech is supported by M&A (Sprint renewed discussions with T-Mobile US) and a well-received testimony from Facebook CEO Zuckerberg.

In corporate news this morning, Tesco Q4 like-for-like sales +2.3% beats consensus 2.2%, UK & Ireland FY op margin 2.3% vs 2.22% est, Group operating margin 2.9% vs 2.7% est; Group Op profit £1.644bn vs £1.6bn est; Net debt -30% YoY, FY cash flow +22%, final div 2p (3p for year). Hammerson rejects revised £5.04bn takeover proposal (+3.5%) from France’s Klépierre.

Vedanta Resources reports record FY production McCarthy & Stone H1 revenues +6%, but pre-tax profits -52% on subdued business. ASOS H1 sales +27% (25% at constant FX), retail sales +27%, UK +22%, international +31%, Gross margin +1pt, pre-tax profits +10%. PageGroup Q1 gross profits +10% despite weak UK performance.

BCA Marketplace expects FY18 results ahead of consensus. Air Partner £4M cost from accounting Issue, higher than first thought. CMA launches investigation into Trinity Mirror acquisition of rival newspaper Express.

In focus today will be UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production (9.30am) – forecast to show a pick-up in annual growth, while UK Construction Output rebounds. Both could move GBP and the FTSE along with the accompanying UK Trade Balance.

With inflation key for Fed policy decision, US Consumer Price Inflation (1.30pm) – the core metric especially – is forecast to have picked up in March to its strongest in a year, playing in favour of further hikes. Watch the USD and knock-on for commodities, GBP and the FTSE. We also get the latest Fed FOMC Meeting minutes this evening (7pm), which could offer additional clues about the pace of further rate hikes.

After last night’s surprise API Crude Oil inventory build, official EIA Inventories (3.30pm) could equally move oil prices this afternoon.

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Tags: alert, FTSE

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