Russian agents, nerve gas, whatever next..?

Russian agents, nerve gas, whatever next..?

Morning all.
Am I on the set of a James Bond film..?
Russian agents, nerve gas, whatever next..?

Ok so let’s have a look at things.

The U.S $ is still mid-range consolidation in my opinion but showing some signs to go to the north today so far.  But, as far as I am concerned it has quite a lot to do yet to change the overriding downward direction. So for me it is still “technically” in a downtrend and today is just a sunny day in the winter.

The Euro$ picture is pretty much the same story and with ECOFIN meetings today I am expecting some “chop”. At 1.2330 it is still mid range of 1.2550 and 1.2150 and as such it remains clueless in my opinion.

Technically speaking Cable is still showing weakness to the south-side helped along by the $ slowly creeping up the stairs, but it too is still mid-range.  Also my super long analysis has it sitting slap bang on a Fib level around here between 1.3850 and 1.3870 so it’ll be interesting to se if that gets tested and broken.  However, Fundamentally speaking today is the UK Budget day so anything could happen.

$Yen in the light of recent events in Japan and the $ movement has all bets off for the time being. I still believe this has mileage to the south-side in the long run but for the moment that view is being challenged.
I will therefore have to abstain from trading it right now as it tests the upper limits of my consolidation range at 107.00 and convinces me otherwise.

EuroYen similarly is testing my upper limit of range at 132.00 so that like $Yen will now need to do same and convince me that it is “breaking-out” before I start looking for “long” positions.

Looks like a quiet day at the office until the Budget delivery at 11:30.

Keep it tight.


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Categories: Analysis, Guest Writers

About Author

Clive Arneil

Clive Arneil worked for major brokers for over 20 years trading most instruments in the Foreign Exchange markets as well as Derivatives. Brokered deals on behalf of some of the worlds largest banks including Barclays, Citibank, UBS, Nat West and the Bank of England. Worked mainly in the UK but also in Switzerland, Germany and the U.S. Retired from the Money Market at the age of 40 and worked as a financial data feed specialist supplying market data to Banks, Brokers and Spread-Betting companies. Still trading and teaching people the skills required to master today’s volatile markets.