What to make of these markets…?

What to make of these markets…?

What to make of these markets…?

On the 29th of August, 8th of September and 22nd of September this year the Euro$ pairing gave us warning of potential price reversals through 3 decent Candlestick patterns ( shooting stars). Since then the pair has slid, although a very bumpy ride, from around 1.1950 to around 1.1600 where it is this morning.

The big question is of course will the slide continue..?
Well, I have a decent Fib level range between 1.1700 and 1.1750 that could be holding this down (for the moment anyway) as this level has been tested from both sides and reluctantly it is still beneath having had another go at it twice in the last week from the underside.

What’s my take on it..?
In order for this pair to show any signs of going up (and I don’t mean on a daily basis as we always have up and down days – I mean trending up) this has got to get well above 1.2000 and then test the recent highs of 1.2100.  Should it do that it will be then the highest it has been since December 2014 before it slipped into a consolidation that lasted 3 years. To the downside it could easily slip into that old consolidation range of 1.1500 – 1.0500.  With the U.S talking about interest rate hikes in December, Spain and Brexit this is a distinct possibility.
Short term view – neutral to lower
Long term view – lower

The Pound
(£/$) despite its recent push northwards is struggling a little and seems to be much more sensitive against the $ than the Yen.  Currently beneath a major resistance range between 1.3200 and 1.3250 it appears to be running out of steam.  As in my post on 3rd November if this does slide it may well test that 1.3040 level again and maybe this time be successful in breaching it.  Next support in my estimations would be around 1.2925 and below at 1.2850.
To the upside it has to get up there breaking through 1.3300 initially and go on to break through 1.3600 where it struggled to get over for some time in September.
The Pound
Short term view – neutral to lower
Medium  term view – lower
Long term view – higher but that is some way off.

The US $
The $ is all over the place at the moment as there are worries about Trumps Tax Reform Plan and the timeliness of its implementation as well as his popularity at home and abroad.  Interest rate hikes V’s The President could prove to be a very interesting game.
The $
Short term view – neutral
Long term view – higher

U.S Oil
I’ve missed the boat here as it surges ever on-wards towards $60.00
It may have a recoil from here but I am not in it at all at the moment.
Short term view – neutral
Long term view – lower

Same as before, looking to see if this is going to break to the north. 1300.00 is a significant number for me with a resistance just above at 1310.00. If that runs and gets above 1350.00 we could then see the run I have been looking for.
Short term view – neutral to higher
Long term view – higher

The Markets are all over the place right now and for the most part “confused”. With so much in the way of conflicting news going on uncertainty will continue. The situation in Spain, The U.S and Brexit are weighing heavily on the market place and until such times as there is a definitive decision one way or the other particularly in the case of the UK we are going to see some serious “chop”. So for me less is more and once again there is nothing out there that is whetting my whistle.

Its 09:30 I’ve done nothing so far and without any major news today and in fact for the rest of the week, I am expecting markets to be pretty quiet with the possibility of lower than usual “spiking” giving false indications and sometimes hitting stop loss levels that otherwise may have been safe.”

Will I have another trade freed day..?  –
Quite possibly.

Take it easy


Remember Guys, the blogs are only my opinion.
They are not an instruction to buy or sell anything and are simply my view on things.
The Technical Analysis I employ is based entirely on my understanding of the market.
Traders have to have the ability to adjust to market conditions as they come and go be able to change their mind as does the market itself.

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About Author

Clive Arneil

Clive Arneil worked for major brokers for over 20 years trading most instruments in the Foreign Exchange markets as well as Derivatives. Brokered deals on behalf of some of the worlds largest banks including Barclays, Citibank, UBS, Nat West and the Bank of England. Worked mainly in the UK but also in Switzerland, Germany and the U.S. Retired from the Money Market at the age of 40 and worked as a financial data feed specialist supplying market data to Banks, Brokers and Spread-Betting companies. Still trading and teaching people the skills required to master today’s volatile markets.