GKNgineers unwelcome profits warning

GKNgineers unwelcome profits warning

Mike van Dulken and Henry Croft at Accendo Markets commented to clients this morning:

FTSE 100 Index called to open -15pts at 7540, having pulled back from yesterday’s record closing high. Rising support at 7535 and 7520, however, remain valid, leaving the index in an October rising trend that could yet take it back to its June intra-day record of 7600. Bulls need a break above 7550, nears a breach of 7530. Bullish 7550, Bearish 7530.

Calls for a slightly negative open come after Wall St closed lower after mixed US bank results and ahead of key inflation data today. However, Asian bourses are up overnightafter positive China trade data suggested a reassuring acceleration in growth for the world’s #2 economy. Note Japan’s Nikkei recovering 21yr highs and its sibling Topix at its best for a decade.

Australia’s ASX is back to highest since June thanks to Miners benefiting from a bounce for copper, iron ore, Gold and Oil after positive China exports growth and USD weakness ahead of the US inflation print later. Japan’s Nikkei outperforms in spite of Yen strength as Energy names welcome the oil price rise following a bigger than expected US Crude stock drawdown.

The USD off its highs keeps it in a downtrend from 5 Oct and means GBP at 9-day highs, potentially representing a hindrance for the FTSE100.

FTSE headlines include Shire’s new formulation of ONCASPAR receiving positive CHMP opinion in Europe for patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. GKN says recent margin performance not met company views; £40m unexpected charges in Q4. Ashmore reports highest net inflows for 4 years; “Investors increasingly focusing on Emerging Markets”. Citigroup, Deutsche, HSBC Agree to $132m Settlement in Libor Scandal.

Aviva to exit Taiwan by selling 49% stake in JV. Provident Financial 2017 CCD pre-exceptional loss still expected £80-120m; FY dividend will not be paid. Man Group AUM +28% YTD to $103.5bn; strong inflows into alternative risk premia and emerging market debt strategies; Intends to launch a buyback of up to $100m.

US equity markets retreated from fresh all-time intraday highs to close shy of Wednesday’s record closes as earnings season hits top gear. All three major US indices closed 0.1-0.2% lower following results from JPMorgan and Citigroup, with the former weighing on the Dow Jones alongside peer Goldman Sachs and UnitedHealth, while the latter weighed on theS&P500 alongside major Telecom names.

Crude Oil prices have recovered after an IEA report-inspired dip, rallying as the US dollar continues to retreat from yesterday’s highs and the EIA reported a bullish inventory drawdown. Brent crude has rallied from a brief foray below $56 yesterday evening, trading back above $56.5, while its US counterpart has regained a $51 handle.

Gold is rallying once again as the US dollar continues to retreat from last week’s highs. Despite a brief recovery from rising lows support yesterday, the global reserve currency is back testing yesterday afternoon’s lows. This has lifted the precious metal to a 2.5 week high just shy of $1300.

In focus today will be US Consumer Price Inflation (1:30pm), given the Fed’s difficulty in reconciling sub-target price growth (core 1.8% vs 2.0% target) with unemployment at 16yr lows. As always, Weekly/Hourly Earnings growth will be looked to for signs of inflationary pressure that would support further US rate rises. Watch US Retail Sales too, which can be a decent barometer of Consumer Confidence (3pm), itself forecast flat.

Speakers of note today include the ECB’s Mersch (10.30am) and VP Constancio (3.15pm), at IMF events in Washington, and Fed speakers Rosengren (1.30pm, hawkish), Evans (3.25pm, dove), Kaplan (4.30pm, dovish) and Powell (6pm, dovish), all but Evans at events in Boston.

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