Remember this – the market is not driven by charts

Remember this – the market is not driven by charts

Morning all.
Euro$ did exactly what was expected yesterday and tested 1.1850 at the end of the day and this morning sits just above at 1.1860. Technically speaking it’s in the cloud and until it gets above 1.1900 and 1.2050 I think we are going to see this “chop” around. Therefore as in yesterdays blog I am just going to have to stay neutral right now.
My overall view remains that it goes lower over the distance but I have to say it is finding plenty of support and with the $ sliding further it may mean I have to change my mind.
Euro
short term view – neutral
long term view – neutral to lower (long distance)

The Pound
Cable hasn’t really done much at all. Yesterday it chopped around in a relatively tight range and this morning finds itself up just about 40 pips at 1.3240.  It’s now inside the huge range I’ve mentioned before of 1.3200 – 1.3600 and all the time it’s inside there we’re going to have volatility. I will add that in my long term analysis 1.3250 is a big Fib level so it will be interesting to see what happens with this in the near future.
Now, all that said remember this – the market is not driven by charts.
Trading the Pound is trading the Brexit and anything can and will happen as we go forward.
Using chart analysis alone would not be a good idea.
Pound
short term view – neutral
medium term view – lower
long term view – higher

Yen
$Yen is the pair I am looking at right now over and above the aforementioned. 112.00 is clearly a big support level and it has attempted to breach this key number a couple of times.
Beneath that is a big support at 111.50 but below that not a lot.
Expect a bounce today as support is tested.
Yen
short term view – higher
long term view – higher

Gold
In the cloud right now but looking good to go north again with 1310.00 being the first major hurdle. If that comes to fruition I think 1350.00 here we come with the next stop 1375.00.
Gold
short term view – higher
long term view – higher

Oil
Waiting to see how the inventories pan out today at 16:00
short term view – neutral
long term view – lower

The U.S $
Still under pressure, in the cloud and at a point of decision.
Frankly anything could happen from here.
short term view – neutral to lower
long term view lower.

Clive

update
Today looks like it is going to simply “chop” around so I am calling it a day. Remember there is no blog tomorrow as it’s Friday.
Have a great weekend all

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Categories: Guest Writers, News, Viewpoint

About Author

Clive Arneil

Clive Arneil worked for major brokers for over 20 years trading most instruments in the Foreign Exchange markets as well as Derivatives. Brokered deals on behalf of some of the worlds largest banks including Barclays, Citibank, UBS, Nat West and the Bank of England. Worked mainly in the UK but also in Switzerland, Germany and the U.S. Retired from the Money Market at the age of 40 and worked as a financial data feed specialist supplying market data to Banks, Brokers and Spread-Betting companies. Still trading and teaching people the skills required to master today’s volatile markets.