And on and on and Ariston

And on and on and Ariston

Mike van Dulken, Head of Research at Accendo Markets commented to clients this morning:

FTSE 100 Index called to open +5pts at 7515, building on yesterday’s break back above 7500 for the first time in two months, completing the bullish flag we highlighted. Bulls will be looking for further gains and a challenge on 7550 August highs. Bears still require a meaningful test and breach of steep rising support at 7500. Bullish 7520, Bearish 7500.

Calls for a positive market open come after yet more record highs on Wall St which broke a 20yr record as the S&P closed higher for an eighth consecutive session, led by Tech (Netflix in particular after it hiked prices – inflationary).

Investors sentiment was buoyed by economic optimism after strong macro data (durable goods, ISM), a soft touch appointment as Fed Banking watchdog and House Republicans approving a budget resolution that increases the chances of passing of tax reform. This despite a tricky US jobs report looming in light of recent hurricanes.

Asian bourses positive overnight, with Australia’s ASX outperforming thanks to thanks to Miners, as oil prices and Copper bounced in spite of USD strength. Japan’s Nikkei is higher on the back of Yen weakness and yesterday’s stateside tech rally.

The stronger USD is likely to buoy the UK FTSE by way of reciprocal GBP weakness amid persistent Westminster uncertainty.

FTSE headlines this morning include CRH target Ash Grove Cement saying it is in discussions with a 3rd party about a competing non-binding offer of $3.8bn (vs CRH’s $3.5b). CRH has until 20 Oct. EasyJet sees FY17 pre-tax profit at upper end of guidance range. In contrast, a letter to the Irish independent suggests Ryanair boss O’Leary offering pilots better pay and conditions to stay.

Oil prices are holding yesterday’s bounce on hopes of an extension to the global OPEC/NOPEC output deal to support prices, breaking above recent falling highs resistance to revisit $51 and $56 for WTI and Brent respectively.

Gold is testing recent $1268 support as the USD strengthens further after strong macro data played into the hands of a Fed which is likely to hike US interest rates again in December. Equities at record highs also saps demand for the safe haven. Potential for pullback to $1252 August low.

In focus today will be the US jobs report (1.30pm) which is expected to include a weak Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) print for September on account of inclement weather. Unemployment, however, is likely to remain around recent lows, meaning Average Hourly Earnings growth could be the most watched element for inflationary signals to support another Fed rate hike in December. As always keep an eye on NFP revisions to prior months which have potential to eclipse headline figures.

Away from data, Bank of England Chief Economist Haldane (1pm) participates in a debate about whether we are moving to a new era, in which we trust institutions less, but people and networks more. This will build on his speech last night on “Central Bank Engagement with Society’. We also have the ECB’s Nowotny speaks at 2.30pm.

After the European close Fed members have potential to move US markets and the USD, including Rosengren(4.45pm) speaking at an economic conference. This is followed by Dudley (5.15pm) on monetary policy, Kaplan (5.45pm) at a workforce conference and Bullard (6.50pm) talking about standards of living across US metro areas.

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About Author

Clive Arneil

Clive Arneil worked for major brokers for over 20 years trading most instruments in the Foreign Exchange markets as well as Derivatives. Brokered deals on behalf of some of the worlds largest banks including Barclays, Citibank, UBS, Nat West and the Bank of England. Worked mainly in the UK but also in Switzerland, Germany and the U.S. Retired from the Money Market at the age of 40 and worked as a financial data feed specialist supplying market data to Banks, Brokers and Spread-Betting companies. Still trading and teaching people the skills required to master today’s volatile markets.