Pound has had a shot of adrenaline

Pound has had a shot of adrenaline

Hello fellow traders.
The UK Office of National Statistics released this statement this morning which gave the Pound a little shot of adrenaline on its way to the magic 1.3000.

“Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between October to December 2016 and January to March 2017, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people fell, and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) also fell. There were 31.95 million people in work, 122,000 more than for October to December 2016 and 381,000 more than for a year earlier. The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.8%, the highest since comparable records began in 1971”.

Whilst this is good news the Pound remains in neutral territory for me for the moment. A 4 hour chart reveals a band between 1.2850 and 1.2975 as it continues to go sideways.
At the risk of sounding boring this needs to be planted on or above 1.3000 before I’ll be looking for a “long position”. I expected this to have had a bumpier ride to be honest before my predicted surge northwards but the UK continues to churn out good data.
I expect there will be some European’s that will be pretty “miffed” about that. Still, negotiations have not really even started yet so very early days. I expect 1.3000 to be tested pretty soon, possibly today.
short term view – neutral
long term view – up

The Euro$ managed to climb the stairs to 1.1100 early this morning but now sits just under at 1.1075 or thereabouts. This is not surprising as the $ had a little slide.
I’m still keeping my powder dry for the moment with this pair.
short term view – neutral
long term view – read yesterdays blog.

Oil as in yesterdays blog is still under the enormous pressure that there is simply loads of it about. With technology making it easier and cheaper to get at the old conventional methods used to extract it could in the future even become redundant. Those that rely on the drilling method and have Oil as the primary source of revenue are not likely to sit on billions of barrels of the stuff only to be out priced at a later date.  I fully expect this to bounce around this level ($48.5) give or take 50 cents for a while. It may test $50 where I reckon it will find plenty of sellers.
short term view – neutral for the moment
long term view – lower.

Gold. Well that chopped around a bit yesterday but as in the blog was showing good signs of the break-out from 1235.00 This morning 1000 pips higher it looks like it is headed for the mighty 1250.00. It is pretty stretched right now as moved 500 pips just after midnight last night so we may see a slight retracement before it possibly moves again.

Keep it tight


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About Author

Clive Arneil

Clive Arneil worked for major brokers for over 20 years trading most instruments in the Foreign Exchange markets as well as Derivatives. Brokered deals on behalf of some of the worlds largest banks including Barclays, Citibank, UBS, Nat West and the Bank of England. Worked mainly in the UK but also in Switzerland, Germany and the U.S. Retired from the Money Market at the age of 40 and worked as a financial data feed specialist supplying market data to Banks, Brokers and Spread-Betting companies. Still trading and teaching people the skills required to master today’s volatile markets.