My advice is do not run any Euro positions over the weekend

My advice is do not run any Euro positions over the weekend

Good Morning.

Guys, take a look at this report I saw this morning (most of which) comes from CNN Money.

Sergi Cutillas was thrilled when Spain joined the euro. Now he wants out. “The euro-zone has failed. It was a bad experiment,” he said.
“It was wishful thinking.”

The 34-year-old economist wants Spain to abandon the euro.
He’s far from alone: 25% of the people who use the common currency want to ditch it, according to the latest European Union poll.

The threat to the euro is most acute in France, where people will vote Sunday in the first round of a presidential election that features Marine Le Pen. The far right politician, who wants to take France out of the currency union, is expected to advance to a run-off vote against one other candidate on May 7.

The Euro is now under threat from politicians on both the left and right who want to bring the lira, drachma, peseta and French franc out of retirement.

Here’s why some Europeans want to kill the euro:

‘Europe is not a nation’

For Alberto Bagnai (a leading European economist)  the case against the currency boils down to this: European countries are not the same, and so they shouldn’t use the same currency.

“The basic point is that you cannot have a federal state among citizens from countries with such a different cultural past,” said the Italian academic. “Without a European state, you cannot have European money.”

Some European countries are richer, some are poorer, like American states. But unlike the U.S., the euro-zone does not have a central government to decide on spending, tax and budget policies.

“The U.S. is a nation, there is a sense of common identity,” he said.

That’s not true in Europe, where there’s little prospect of political unity because wealthier nations such as Germany would end up transferring money permanently to the less fortunate.

“Germany does not want this,” said Bagnai.
“We should stop telling fairy tales.”

Well, well, well at last the penny has dropped, well for some anyway.
I was there when the Euro came along and have been saying since its concept  that it was fake and would never work

It started its life against the U.S $ at 1.1700
Denmark, Sweden and the UK opted not to join this European Club and Greece could not make the cut due to high inflation and huge debt
(2 years later they managed to – how did they do that then?).

The Euro$ fell from 1.1700 to .08500

In 2008 the Global Financial Crisis came along and the Euro had a very difficult time as banks became bankrupt and indeed even countries could not pay their debt.

The ECB had to bail them out.
Ireland $73 billion in 2010.
Portugal $85.6 billion in 2011.
Spain $45 billion in 2012.
Cyprus $11 billion in 2013.
Greece $146 billion in 2010, a further $173 billion in 2012 and then $95 billion in 2015.

Yeah this Euro-zone is working

Now, with the UK leaving the Union and the rise of Euro-sceptic political parties is the biggest threat it has faced yet.

As I have said many, many times the Euro is a political currency and every time in history that I can remember anyway, when politics has messed with money markets it has failed 100% of the time.
Is history going to maintain its record and it’s going to happen again?

The Pound will get a little volatile this afternoon as Bank of England Gov. Carney takes to the stage. Friday, Saturday and Sunday there are IMF meetings and the French elections get into full swing.
My advice is do not run any Euro positions over the weekend.

Fridays I don’t usually trade or blog (apart from NFP days) so I will be back next week unless something significant happens later today.

Next week will be interesting.
Keep it tight.

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Categories: Guest Writers, News

About Author

Clive Arneil

Clive Arneil worked for major brokers for over 20 years trading most instruments in the Foreign Exchange markets as well as Derivatives. Brokered deals on behalf of some of the worlds largest banks including Barclays, Citibank, UBS, Nat West and the Bank of England. Worked mainly in the UK but also in Switzerland, Germany and the U.S. Retired from the Money Market at the age of 40 and worked as a financial data feed specialist supplying market data to Banks, Brokers and Spread-Betting companies. Still trading and teaching people the skills required to master today’s volatile markets.